Saturday, August 18, 2012

Market Timing

Someone is probably lying if he claims that he could time the market to the dot. Does the Oracle of Omaha good in timing the market. He humbly said he is lousy in timing. A further insight, come to think of it, he is probably one the the best market timer I have ever known. Didn't he tell us " Be greedy when everyone is fearful and be fearful when everyone is greedy ' ? Isn't that a way of timing the market on it's different way ?
Timing the market shall not be related to analytically analysis. The chart only shows what have happened and we are merely assume that the rend would continue or anticipating the trend would reverse. That looks like  quantitative to me. Nothing wrong with that anyway.

Most of the cyclical business could be timed. For instant, when the palm oil is at the bottom, one could " time the market " to accumulate the oil palm related company. Similarly, we could also accumulate the construction related companies, steel manufacturer, cement producer now for we know that the MRT and the other mega project would  eventually bring some positive impact on the above said. We could accumulate banking stocks when the interest is still low and start selling when the interest rate is picking up. These are the example of the cyclical business. We are always trying to time the swing the of the pendulum.

We could also time the market base of the unexpected event. The flood in Thailand was the good example for us to accumulate the surviving hard disk producer then. Likewise, we could also time the market base on the fluctuation of certain commodities. One good example is the rubber glove producer. We could start buying rubber glove producer like Top Glove,  Supermax and etc when the latex price is almost half from RM10.00++ to currently around RM5.00++.

As changes is the only constant in investing, it is how sensitive we are and how vigilant we are that determine we are going to make a killing or not. In other word, hour sensitivities is the watch to  ' time the market'.
Of course, the could be temporary or ad-hoc certainty that we could pretty comfortable with. A very good example is Hartalega. Unless something major happen, we are quite certain that the profit will surely goes up substantially once the company increase the production capacity in the coming years. Another good example is the REIT. We are quite certain that the profit is pretty stable and it all depends of what sort of yields are we looking for. That is for the unadventurous. I am more of the mix of 2.

But there are another 3 secrete ingredients to make a killing. " Gut, Gut, Gut" !!!
Without it, it doesn't matter how good you are in predicting the market, it won't translate into big action to win you big money. Happy Trading and Happy Holidays.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012


For whoever attend the Hartalega AGM and so happen to read this, hope you share some of the management insight with the rest of us. Tight schedule prevent me to attend it. By the way, manage to  catch the new here  . It looks like growth would be in the pipe lines in the coming quarters. The profit will be eventually goes up significantly when the new production lines start commissioning Sept 2012. Shall the NGC complex be executed successfully, Hartalega would be a counter to be hold for the coming 6-7 years. It is hard to find another well managed company like Hartalega. For a long term investment horizon, at RM4.45 per piece Hartalega is a good buy. Just like cooking a chicken soup, the longer you cook it the better the taste. We need time to fully capitalize the full potential of Hartalega. Enough said about it, the blog is not dedicated to Hartalega anyway.

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Cooking List ...

The market is still hot here are the dishes ( 2nd liners )  for a meal  :

1. Appetizer - Cypark
2.  Main Course - Benalec
3. Dessert - MBL

What do you think ?  I don;t think I have to put a standard disclaimer here. It is just for the fun of it. Comments are welcome. I am running of trading idea... and I am not intending to hold cash. People said cash is King... yeah yeah .. the problem is I don't want to be a King ..... happy trading ...