Friday, January 20, 2012

Gong Xi Fa Chaiiiiiiiiii !!!!!


Sunday, January 15, 2012

A Little Chicken, A Chicken and A Roster

If a kid ( Little Chicken ) cut que  right in front of you when you are with a pregnant wife what would you do ? A normal person I sounded the Little Chicken " Adik , Janga potong Q. Itu tak baik and tak elok ". Of course I let the Little Chicken cut my que which brought the attention of the chicken. She said " Apa sal U marah anak saya ". I calmly told her : " I am not scolding him. I just told him it is not a good mnner to cut que ". The Chicken was not happy with that saying : " Saya mak dia, dia que untuk saya tak boleh ". I said : " Tentu boleh dia untuk Q untuk cik. Tapi, dia sudah cut Q saya." The mother was behind me and of course the kid sneaked right in front of me and my wife. I was kind of pissed off with the Chicken but not the kid. The kid is innocent and he is still in the learning curve to be well manner man. I told the Chicken : " Saya cuma bagi tahu, potong Q adalah tak elok. No manner. Itu saja. Tak tahu kah cik tunjuk anak-anak budi bahasa ". I was kind of annoyed and seeing the conversation was leading no where so I just let the kid got what his mother asked him to do and carry on with my shopping. I took  me about 20 minutes to get everything done. And Kah Pommmmmmm disaster awaited me at the main entrance at The Jucso ( Mid valley ).
The Roster   was waiting at the main entrance for me. The moment the Roste spotted me he went shouting : " Apasal you marah anak saya !!!! " I was like WTF ? .... Everyone was watching us. I went : " I tak marah dia. I cuma bagi tahu tak elok and no manner potong Q. Buat apa I nak marah dengan budak ? ". He was shouting : " Wooooiiii I cakap apasal u marah anak saya.... No manner no manner apa.... kalau tak puas hati u cari bapa dia.... Nasib baik tak ada kat situ ... kalau ada... kena Kauuuuu &*()&^%#$@ ". I was like damnnn this guy want to get attention from the public. I just shook my head and walked away. He was shouting at the back. Probably want to get more attention from the public. I was pissed off ad thinking if he was after me I would sad : " Encik saya dan isteri saya rasa terugut dengan jerikan encik. Kalau encik nak ugut saya atau henta saya, sila kan. Saya jumpa encik kat balai saja. Biar anak and iter encik tunggu u kat luar lokap. "
This is a pissed off post and have nothing to do with the market. The moral of the story is When A Roster Married A Chicken and Teach The Kids Like A Chicken. The Kid Will Grow Up And A Roster.  !!!! I just feel sorry for the kid.
Anyway Happy Trading and Gong Xi Fa Chai ... Huattttt ahhhhhh :)
P/S : What will you do if you were me  ? :) .. Just curious

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

I Need An Axplanation For This !!!!!

LPI released it's 4Q 2011 report ago. It will be boring to go into detail about it's asset quality and it's investment income. We know that it's asset quality and investment income are always top among the peers.  Let's cut it short. In 2011 LPI is making 154.50 Mil which translate it into and PE of 20 ( At he time of writing price = 14.00 EPS 70.++ sen ) . The dividend yield is about 5% ( Assuming 100% payout for the 70 sen per share income ). The PE yield is about 5% as well since 1/20 is 5%. NTA = 5.36 as on ( 4th Q 2011 ) at 14.00 a piece that is 2.62 NTA.
Is LPI a well managed company ? No doubt about it.
The Question is here ? Why Allianz still priced by the market at 4.80 at the time of writing. 3Q of 2011 sees a profit of 97.75 mil. Assuming the 4th profit would be average of t he 1st 3 quarters, that would translate the annual income of 97.97x4/3=130 mil or 34.63sen ( dilute earning per share i.e assuming all Allianz-PA converted into Allianz ). That is a PE of 13.8. Diluted NTA = RM 3.91 ( as on 3rd Q 2011 ). That is 1.23 NTA at the price of RM4.80.

Now, both Allianz and LPI are in insurance business. That is a balance sheet oriented business.
LPI ~ 2.62 NTA , PE=20 at the price of RM14.00 ( That is fairly valued by most analysts )
Allianz ~ 1.23 NTA PE = 13.8 at the price of RM4.80 ( I don't see any analyst rate it )

If this is a beauty contest, Allianz shall win hands down. The only flaw is that Allianz is not paying out dividend ( the dividends paid by Allianz so far is negligible ). But this is a balance sheet oriented company anyway. Emphsis should be on it's NTA and it's earning power. Allianz is high growth rat company. I just understand why it is commanding such an "attractive" price in comparison to LPI. maybe the guru is right if a good company share price didn't go up forthe past 3 years , it probably won't in future.

I am longing Allianz. tell me a reason to change ship ? I am holiding for a 1.25 year now. Maybe another 1.75 year for me to think about it. Adios... Happy Trading. :)

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Review of Prediction and 2012 Prediction

Here are the predictions made 27 Dec 2010 :

1. QE2 effect is felt through out the region especially in US which will balloon the equity market for a while.
~ This is half baked. But it I don't think anyone will deny the QE2 was taking it's effect if not 100% effective. Going forward into 2012, US will fare better than Europe. China economy health would be a major concern.
2. Economy is getting better than expected. But unemployment will come down a bit but still remain high.
~ US economy indicator is heading north. The labour market is showing good sign of recovery in Q4 2011. Unemployment remains high as expected. Unless there is a major fall out of Europe, labour market should show sign of better improvement in 2012 which is a " Vigra " for the overall economy and equity. Recovery would be there but it would be bumpy road ahead in 2012.
3. Inflation would be edging up higher in China. Instead of raising the interest rate, the China would opt for higher target of  Yuan appreciation especially against USD.
~ Out of prediction. The China tightening took its effect. Inflation is edging down in China in the last 2 quarter of 2011. However, letting the yuan to appreciate more is helping to ease the inflation. I would expect Yuan to appreacitae against USD but not a figure that we shall be shouting. China is still a export oriented economy, letting Yuan to appreciate at higher pace would not help much to push it's economy. But, politic is still politic, Obama administration would keep on pushing China especially in 2012 ( The election year for US )
4. Indonesia will fair much better than Malaysia again.
~ This is a 1 + 1 =  how much prediction. Again 2012, Indonesia would do much better than Malaysia.
5. Latex price will remain high. Users are switching more to nitrile gloves from rubber glove.
~ The latex price caught me by surprise as it was approaching Q4 12. Current the price is around RM6.++ per kg. It  will certainly intensify the competition between Nitrile glove maker and rubber glove maker. However as the nitrile rubber is also experiencing the fall of it's price, the momentum of consumer to switch from rubber to nitrile till continue. Nitrile glove is still a premium product and it cost of production is still lower than rubber glove maker. Entering 2012, nitrile glove maker will fare better.
6. Properties will increase in US.
~ Yeah it did increase a bit. The sales of new and existing home was increasing even though it was at baby pace. The housing industries need to be pushed further in order to see the raise of the economy.
7. Interest rate would remain low in US as inflation doesn't impose a threat.
~ As expected. 1H 2012 would remain same. If there is no headwind from the Europe, interest rate and inflation shall pick up modestly.
8. Commodities price would come down after hitting another historical high.
~ Yeap, commodities felled in the 2H 2011. Nothing goes up forever as do nothing falls down forever. Commodities would head north shall the economy pick up as the 2H 2012.
9. Gold price would come down.
~ Yeap, it was falling towards the end of 2012. But still booked a gain in 2011. Gold is still an alternative investment product but not for me. Better buy SPRD GLD than Gold Investment Account from the local bank. The spread of gold price offered by the local bank is too big for me to swallow. Gold will book gain in 2012 but not much.
10. European debt issue still remain an issue. But market would like get " used to that "
~ As expected. Europe crisis would still be the headline of the 2012 newspaper business section.
11. North Korea is still stubborn as before. There would be NO WAR with south Korea.
~ If anyone can predict that Kim Jong Il would die in 2011, let me know I want him to read my palm. :). Thing will remain status quo in 2012. But I will like to see North Korea open it's door like China. I just feel sorry for the citizen of North Korea. They don't even know what is going on out there.
12. KLSE would touch 1650. DOW reaches 1300  13000 S&P 500 touches 1350.
~ Nope KLSE hit highest 1597  ( which is only 3 pint shy to 1600 , walau I must go and buy toto or magunum4d ). Ending 2011 with slight positive is considered good in comparison to the global index ). Dow hit highest 12876. Pretty close. S&P 500 hit highest at 1370 Pretty close as well. 2012 spells more uncertainty especially the Euro mess. However I still believe market would adjust itself to the north but it would be a bumpy ride. 
13.BDI will still under pressure because of the flood of new fleets.
~ New fleets keep on flooding the market. BDI will still under pressure. Maybulk could be a company under watch for dry bulk sector shall be bottoming in 2012. It has been  rough years for dry bulk carries. Nothing should remain at the bottom for too long. It is a sector under my radar screen shall the opportunity arises. 
14. To be added if something comes up before the new year eve
14. General election would be held. Pakatan will have tough fight.
~ Nah.. I am totally out. GE13 shall be in 2012. If not 2013 ahahahahahaha.... Pakatan would have a easy ride this round. 
15. More Malaysian are migrating out of Malaysia.

16. Still a way to go for me to hit the "pop"
~  Yeah still a long way. venturing property investment. Properties would remain soft in 2012 especially after the new " net income " guide line by the Bank Negara. Condominium would be most hit. Young couples / flipper who commit a 500k condo would find it hard off the unit, find it even harder to rent it out at rent with positive cash flow.  However, I would suspect a major changes of properties price. Landed property at Klang Valley area would still has it's market. After 2012 or 2013, with all the condo ( under construction now ) floods the market, then we would a  real deal.
17. Bank Negara would be dilemma to increase the interest rate to fight inflation for that would encourage more hot money inflow. Hence, properties would remain high floated.
~ Yeap. Property price remains high in 2011. Interest rate remain the same but with the new " net income" guide line, it shall put some damper on the property price. As mentioned above, price will grow at a much slower pace. Cant expect a 25% price increase in a year already. We shall be lucky enough to get a 10% yearly gain.
18. To be added if something comes up before the new year eve
18. US munibond would not default. If it does, it would be trouble again.
~ US won't default as they can always print money to pay. 

2012 would be a year of uncertainties. Well get used to it. Bursa won't be an exciting market. As long as no foreign to come in, we could only main sendiri. That doesn't men there is no money to be made here. Plenty of good companies to choose.  I bet u know my pick ..... haha I am going to stick to it. Just take care of the down side, the up side would take care  of itself. Happy Trading.... Yesterday you were a year younger, wishing the older you get wiser, healthier and happier. HAPPY 2012..... Adios