Sunday, July 31, 2011

The Deal is Almost Done

At last the politicians in US come to their senses. It is almost a done deal. But, no one will know utill it get it voted and signed. But what is next now ? It will be always headwind ahead. It is far more difficult to pick a stock when the fiasco was at the peak in march 2009. ( but emotionally it was crazy lah at that moment ). As for the time being, it is better to take care of the down side.
I was listening to Tan T B interview this morning on 89.9 ( BFM = Boyish Future Millionaire :) ). Well, as people said he is the Buffet of Malaysia. I do respect people who could achieve what he has done. But, come on lah to brag aout how great you are is a bit huhhhh lah. yes, you made a great call on Petronas Dagangan, Padini and F&N. But how about your bad call on the others ? I remembered very well his statement about how he beat Berkshire Hatcheway. Hello you are a diffrent leage to Buffet my dear friend. he is managing USD billions fund and you are managing RM 1.5 billon at the max. If I am comapring my fund to yours, could I brag about how I beat you ? Of course I can, it is a free world. But that is not a good thing or right thing to do.
For me, a good fund manager will be honest and admit their dumb and stupid mistake. Your decouple theory right after the Lehman Brother collapse was deadly wrong. Admit it. I would have done much better if I didn't try to believe it. If you have made a great call, people will notice it. It is a FB era, people get that kind of information easily.
Having said that I was totally agree with you about Indonesia. But the information is just hard to get ? Anyone out there with any information ? I would much appreciate if  you could drop some lines for everyone to share.
I do agree with him about US. US is a very vibrant, unique and fascinating country. Throughout the history, the American could always come back to their feet and prosper again. 2 world war, 1 cold war, 1 deep depression, 70's oil fiasco, 80's recession, 2 Iraq wars and many more didn't bring them down. Do you think the 2008 financial crisis would wipe them out ? Years to come they will prosper again. I don't like US, but I have to admit that they are damn good.
P/ S : Grammar and spelling checking is a pain for me. Bear with that ok. Happy trading. 

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Shall The MIghty Default

We are now at the cross road of the uncharted territory again. What if the US default the debt ?   I opine that is unlikely because the consequences would be unimaginable. Imagine that even the lecturer at the Faculty of Finance or Economy would find it hard to term Risk Free Asset ? Is it going to be huge ? Ohh yes .. it may be a credit crush like 2008 because any bank which holds US Debt has to some how set some lost provision on the US debt they holds. That would be more fund raising to raise up the capital adequacy ratio. Interest rate will go up and etc . The panic might begin and  the chain reaction will extend until  all hell  break loose. allocation for its capital base
The American is not stupid. They know the consequence and they know they need to pass the debt limit bill. The problem is the politicians are stubborn. If it happen in Malaysia, I doubt the MP in the parliment will understad the situation or not.
Anyway, that is beside the point. The concern is the word " what if ". Should the US default even temporary, what is the alternative for the investors to put their money ? Should China stop buying US Treasury and buying Europe debt instead ? There is not much option laid on the table. Europe is not doing well as well. Japan also separuh mati. Of course China can  can't buy their own debt.... so honestly there is not much option.
But certainly US Dollar will drop. If that happen that is a huge opportunity to buy US equity. So are you prepared for the worst ? I hope the Americans are not stupid and the politicians are not stubborn.   After all, it is a dangerous territory to cross. It is very stupid to try. It is like to check whether a shark will attack you or not when you are swimming with a cut wound. If you are swimming in sea with a cut wound when people advise you not too, then you are stupid and stubborn. Happy trading.

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Simply Silly

I am regretting for not doing the walk. Bravo to the ones brave themselves despite the intimidation from the authority. Brave themselves in the rain, teargas and the water canon. We could stand up for a cause that we believe in. " Chicken " like me who cakap saja in this virtual atmosphere is useless. Imagine if The King ( Martin Lurther ) didn't march on the street but instead praying in a church. How things would it be ?
Anyway, this is not a political post.
I  read some articles in some forum and bumped into one ( chinese version ) before  709 which I found it amusing. The author suggested to sell all the share and keeping the bullets to wait the market to fall the following Mondat after 709. He sold all his holding and waited for the " musang king " to fall.
It is rather silly to think a rally to bring the whole market down. He should be worrying about the Europe debt crisis more. I doubt a change of government in Malaysia would shake the market. Of course , it will be totally different if there is political uncertainty during the process of transition of power from one hand to another. But the 709 rally proves that we Malaysian are political mature enough to witness the transition should there be any.
I don't think politic is a systematic risk to the market in Malaysia. I believe some people would not want a change if that would affect their position in the market. WTF lah ... The market will fall if there is a change. So what !!!! It is going to be temporary.   You think market will kesain BN and remind low if the lose in the next election ? It will be .. and always will be like what Donold Trump said " it is nothing personal, it is business "  lah .... The ball will keep on rolling and it is not the end of the world for the market.
Market could even soar if there is a change lah ....
I would stop here. Smells like political already.
P/S : ..  Must get a bright striking polo T this weekend ... Adios .. Happy trading.