Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Not So Hot ( Hard ) Anymore

Allow me to define SDD ( Solid State Drive ). From Wiki :

A solid-state drive (SSD) is a data storage device that uses solid-state memory to store persistent data. SSDs are distinguished from traditional hard disk drives (HDDs), which are electromechanical devices containing spinning disks and movable read/write heads. SSDs, in contrast, use microchips, and contain no moving parts. Compared to traditional HDDs, SSDs are typically less susceptible to physical shock, quieter, and have lower access time and latency. SSDs use the same interface as hard disk drives, thus easily replacing them in most applications.[1]

I am not a tech savvy guy. But one of my " gang" is. It is simply too long and too boring to explain how SDD is more superior than normal hard disk. In short, SDD is better than normal hard disk and it could easily replacing them in most applications. As usual any good stuff come with a higher price tag. But that is not the point here.
A few years ago, we would never thought that Iphone could beat Nokia. I mean, a computer maker vs a leading phone maker. It was like fighting a 800 pound gorilla with bare fists. Obviously Steve Job won the battle. In fact, he changes the whole phone industry. He is basically " telling us " how to use a phone. I am not sure about you but I myself is not a tech savvy guy like I said before. But once I got myself an Iphone few months ago, I told everyone " no regret, worth every single cent, and I don't think I am going to change my phone again " ....
So now, now would Ipad change the whole PC industry ? I am not sure. The chance is fairly good that Apple is going to " doing it again ". Beware the others PC maker. If it does change the industry, it would be a structural change for this ( hard disk ) industry.  If it is you better get out now than later .....
Ohhh yeah .... SDD doesn't need a cover. .... My tech savvy friend just told me that SDD still need a casting but it is a plastic type not the one that IT is producing.... I don't have to tell you which company will be affected in the long run if it happens. Figure it out your self ... As usual Happy trading....

" You see the world through John Malkovich's eyes. Then after about 15 minutes, you're spit out into a ditch on the side of the New Jersey Turnpike! "     ~ Craig Schwartz ( Being John Malkovish's ( 1999 ) )

Sunday, August 15, 2010

And The Oscar Goes To ....

The nominations for the risk take are : The banker and the player.
And theOscar goes to : )  Result :

Will you go ahead with the 100k bet on the dice game at The One Eye Jack Casino :

  _______________________  Yes  _________________ No__________
2nd brother ----------------  Are you the banker ?
Ivan ----------------------- Where is The Casino ?
Tiger -------------------------------------------  Not an interesting game.
Peng -------------------------------------------------------  X
Johnson  ---------------------------------------------------  X
Theng  ------------------------------------------100k Too much. If 10k Go
Frog     ----------------------------------------- Paying Ratio too low
Paoh ----------------------- 0.67 chance to win.
EP  -----------------------  X
KK ----------------------   X

I guess the Oscar goes to no one for the result is 5 vs 5.  It is just a simple question to test how would you react against risk. I will ask how many times I can bet if someone post me the same question. The deal is too good to be true. :). I always believe equity investing is actually matter of risk management. People tend to be risk averse when it involves big chunk of money. Mind is skew to " what if I loose ".... I have the bad habit of  If I win I could double it.... " when the odd is obviously on my side.

By the way, say it is a fair game. You bet 6 times. You win 4 times. and you loose 2 times. Lets us assume that the paying ration is 0.5.  You win = 0.5x4x100 = 200k. You loose = 100k x 2 = 200k. So the paying ration of 0.9 is actually fantastic to me..... Happy Trading.. Ciao ....

" Even with my eyes wide open I can't see a thing. " ~ 座頭市 ( Zaitoichi ( 2003))

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Your Risk Appetite

This is something interesting. I hope you could spare some time to post your answer in the comment box. Just for the sake of fun.
Imagine you enter a very weird casino. You come to a very weird game. In short in looks like this :
1. Minimum bet : 100 k
2. Paying ration is Buy 100 pay 90. Ration of 0.9
3. You can bet 4 numbers of a dice. If any number you choose strikes, the banker pay 90k to the 100k you bet. Hence, the chance of winning is 2/3.

Post the question to 2 friends of mine so far. Would post the result in the next post. Happy trading.

P/S : Ohhh yeah I like this animation so much that I go and learn Japanese Mahjong. You know what !!! Japanese Mahjong is crazy exciting. Ron Ron Ron Ron Ronnnnnnnnnnn !!!!!

"A meaningless death is the essence of a gamble" ~ ( Akagi ( 2005 ) )

Monday, August 9, 2010

The So Called Professional Analyst

Read an article in The Star today talking about glove industry. Again typical blanket comment about over capacity, demand normalizing and etc. Sigh ...  so the share price was going down. This is really bothering me. If you ( so called professional analyst ) wants to say something, please come out with deeper analysis. Give us the figure. Give us your reason of assumption. Oh..... that is so easy to say, over supply, demand would drop, and come up with a underperformed recommendation. That is plain easy... and you are being paid for that kind of rubbish comment ? ... sigh.... I want to be an analyst as well......
If you want to comment something, at least come up with something like this lah brader Mr. Analyst ( from Hwang ) a bit pro lah ..... Here is something that you can learn .... Glove Industry

Whether the story can sell or not is another story. It is up to me to judge. But not something as plain as you have said to The Star reporter. Again eat my own cooking. Long Hartalega and Top Glove. Happy Trading

p/s : For the one like animation. You must watch Totoro ( 1998 ).

          " "I'm not afraid of dust bunnies."--Mei ( Totoro ( 1988 ) )

Monday, August 2, 2010

Infaltion Vs Equity

With the money printing machines working 24/7 these days, we are going to pay for it in the future. For me it is just a matter of time. Friends around me are talking about how to hedge against the inflation. Some said buy gold some said buy properties ( especially ). I am not saying anything wrong with this asset class. I just can't see con of holding it to beat inflation. Lets separate these 3 asset classes.

1. Gold - It is a plain vanilla and pretty straight forward. Gold has been treated as a " value keeper " for the past 2 thousand years. When the inflation hit, gold price will go up. Instead of keeping the fiat money that is circling around the world, gold is always the better choice to hedge against inflation. But again, in this wired world one could actually make a real profit ( profit excluding inflation ) when there is a supply - demand imbalance. The price of gold could very well exceed its value should everyone is chasing for it. But generally, gold is always traded a " value keeper "

2. Properties - This is the asset class with I am not familiar with and not really  fond of it because of its liquidity. It is hard to buy and it is troublesome and take time to sell. But the beauty of this asset class is you could actually leverage it. Down payment 50k and borrow 500k to buy the property at 550k and sell it at 650k to make a 200% gain( excluding fee ) in months. You could even rent it out to enhance the cash flow. Excellent !!! But leverage is a double edge sword. Should the property goes down by 100k the return would be -200%. So it takes a lot of insight to be in the game. Yeah, I know some people making millions in this game. Will like to learn it of course. Anyway, it is not what I want to say here. To say that buying property as the inflation hedge is really perplexing me. The logic of when the inflation hit, all the construction material would goes up hence the selling price will rise accordingly. I just can't see the logic. All I see is when the inflation hit, interest rate would go up, demand would decline, the developer's margin will be squeezed, the price will fall. Again, it is also a supply and demand thing. Certain location would command better demand than others. Hence certain property at certain area will always fetch a better selling price. But to say, generally property is an asset to  hedge against inflation. Sorry I have to disagree.

3. Equity - Equity to beat inflation. Why not !!! I would like to keep it simple. Buying a company which pay you 4 % yield and with a earning growth rate of 5 % could easily beat the inflation of say... 7 %, 8%. The problem is the price fluctuation that always keep us out of focus. Buying Public Bank, Tanjong, IOI or even Maybank could beat the inflation all these years. One could easily make a fortune if he/she buys and sells at the right time.   

So to hedge/ beat against inflation in longer term ( 5-10 years ) the choice I would put would be 3, 1 and 2. How about you ? :P. Happy Trading.

P/S : You must see this movie

" What's the most resilient parasite? An Idea. A single idea from the human mind can build cities. An idea can transform the world and rewrite all the rules. Which is why I have to steal it."
                                                                                  ~ Cobb ( Inception (2010 ) )